Recently, the decrease in population has emerged as a serious social issue due to the low birth rate. The Office for National Statistics announced that the total birth rate in 2021 in Korea was 0.84, which was the lowest level among OECD countries. Considering this trend, it is also expected to have difficulty in securing resources for military service. The total number of crew required is increasing in parallel with the construction of new ships. However, the number of crew on-board every ship are decreasing as the maximum number of people in the navy are fixed.
The design and construction of manpower-saving ships are inevitable. In response to the decrease in the number of crew, establishing a new ship acquisition policy is required; with automated/unmanned leading-edge technology and operational concept innovation. However, an excessive decrease in the number of crew may lower the ship’s ability for combat and navigation. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a scientific model for optimizing the number of crew; to ensure mission completeness and safe navigating while reducing the total number of crew at the same time. In Korea, various research was carried out by government agencies to estimate the manpower required in other fields. But none was found to be related to estimating the number of ship''s crew required. This study’s aim is to develop a methodology for appropriating the number of crew on ships.
In this study two different analysis methods are introduced to estimate the appropriate number of crew: a regression analysis method based on empirical data and a job analysis method based on simulations. In the regression analysis, not only the quantitative range of management but also the qualitative range was considered when selecting independent variables. The ship’s weight in each SWBS(Shipboard Work Breakdown Structure) group was set as a variable to represent the quantitative range of management. The level of automation in each SWBS group was set as the variable for the qualitative range of management. Multiple regression analysis were carried out on 22 ships , and based on the result a model for estimating the number of crew was presented.
A survey was conducted targeting the crew members on-board destroyers. Based on the "Special duty allocation table" the required number of crew in order to carry out general voyage and combat mission was determined. The adequate manpower for each mission was determined by analyzing the survey data of the required skill level and load factor; and queueing matrix theory based simulation. It was noticed that in certain missions the number of crew were adjustable, both increasing and decreasing.
Focusing on missions with low skill and load ratio, multiple missions were merged to be performed by one person. it was possible to figure out a ways of modifications; by merging multiple missions, and reducing the number of crew in certain missions where multiple people are assigned.
It was possible to confirm the direction of mission coordination in the form of merging multiple missions centering on missions with low skill and load ratio, allowing one person to perform and reducing the number of people deployed for missions with multiple people.